Arsenal remain the clear favorites to win the title, with a 64.86% chance, despite conceding a late goal to draw at Sunderland. Sunderland's chances of returning to the Championship have shrunk to 7.41% after a strong start to the season.
Crystal Palace has a 21.27% chance of finishing in the top four and qualifying for the Champions League, while at the bottom end of the table, it looks bleak for Wolves, who have a 90.49% likelihood of being relegated after spending eight seasons in the top flight.
Leeds (51.80%) and Burnley (50.28%) appear set to join Wolves in the relegation battle, with Nottingham Forest and West Ham expected to avoid the drop.
Each Premier League team's chances of competing for the title, Champions League, Europa League, or relegation are detailed below.
Qualifying for the Europa Conference League depends on other factors, including winning the EFL Cup, so it has not been included below.
Arsenal
Current position: 1st
Champions: 64.86%
Champions League: 97.10%
Europa League: 1.57%
Relegation: 0%
Manchester City
Current position: 2nd
Champions: 21.90%
Champions League: 86.41%
Europa League: 5.54%
Relegation: 0%
Chelsea
Current position: 3rd
Champions: 2.85%
Champions League: 40.79%
Europa League: 13.65%
Relegation: 0.02%
Sunderland
Current position: 4th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0.77%
Europa League: 0.91%
Relegation: 7.41%
Tottenham
Current position: 5th
Champions: 0.14%
Champions League: 9.69%
Europa League: 7.03%
Relegation: 0.51%
Aston Villa
Current position: 6th
Champions: 1.18%
Champions League: 27.39%
Europa League: 12.70%
Relegation: 0.06%
Manchester United
Current position: 7th
Champions: 0.33%
Champions League: 12.20%
Europa League: 7.89%
Relegation: 0.44%
Liverpool
Current position: 8th
Champions: 7.39%
Champions League: 66.02%
Europa League: 10.93%
Relegation: 0%
Bournemouth
Current position: 9th
Champions: 0.26%
Champions League: 11.15%
Europa League: 7.72%
Relegation: 0.40%
Crystal Palace
Current position: 10th
Champions: 0.63%
Champions League: 21.27%
Europa League: 11.39%
Relegation: 0.22%
Brighton
Current position: 11th
Champions: 0.32%
Champions League: 11.83%
Europa League: 7.63%
Relegation: 0.45%
Brentford
Current position: 12th
Champions: 0.05%
Champions League: 6.83%
Europa League: 5.71%
Relegation: 1.05%
Everton
Current position: 13th
Champions: 0.02%
Champions League: 1.58%
Europa League: 1.55%
Relegation: 4.98%
Newcastle
Current position: 14th
Champions: 0.07%
Champions League: 6.49%
Europa League: 5.14%
Relegation: 1.23%
Fulham
Current position: 15th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0.37%
Europa League: 0.41%
Relegation: 15.28%
Leeds
Current position: 16th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0%
Europa League: 0.03%
Relegation: 51.80%
Burnley
Current position: 17th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0.01%
Europa League: 0.05%
Relegation: 50.28%
West Ham
Current position: 18th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0.07%
Europa League: 0.06%
Relegation: 39.91%
Nottingham Forest
Current position: 19th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0.03%
Europa League: 0.09%
Relegation: 35.47%
Wolves
Current position: 20th
Champions: 0%
Champions League: 0%
Europa League: 0%
Relegation: 90.49%
